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今天看到一則有趣的新聞，
先大概來看一下新聞怎麼寫，等一下來研究他的論文，
別懷疑，現在論文題目百百款XD…
新聞如下：別挑了 找到理想伴侶的機率28萬分之一
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kMKVc4-0Um8
台詞：
看完這新聞覺得自我安慰也蠻好的，「不是他本身的問題」，哈，外在因素影響比較大!~單身的人如果相信這套說法，相信會較relief一點。
我對他的論文產生了興趣，所以去讀了一下。首先他先把德瑞克方程式(Drake Equation)改編成可以找到potential girlfriends的機率，
將女朋友比擬成連科學家都認為極少出現的外星人，這個講師也太…Well, 他大概沒「愛情滋潤」很久了。
來看他用的公式：(他將參數完全改編)
G = The number of potential girlfriends.
One can easily substitute boyfriends in here but as I am mostly a heterosexual male I will focus on the search for a girlfriend.(他說可以將女朋友改成男朋友...)
R = The rate of formation of people in the UK (i.e. population growth).(英國人口成長率)
This is about 150,000 people per year over the last 60 years.
fW = The fraction of people in the UK who are women.(女性在英國佔的人口比率)
See the above clarification. (0.51)
fL=The fraction of women in the UK who live in London.(更縮小至London女性比率)
I would like my girlfriend to be nearby so that we can see each other. This makes it easier to get to know each other, avoids the difficulties of a long distance relationship and saves me the train fare. (0.13)(→哈這個很實際)
fA = The fraction of the women in London who are age-appropriate.(這個更實際了，要符合年紀喲)
I am nearly 31 years old (Thank you, I know I don’t look it). I would like my girlfriend to be near my own age. I don’t want to feel older than I am by not being able to keep up with a spritely 20 year old, or because I haven’t read Twilight and I don’t know who the Jonas Brothers are. Nor do I want to fall prey to a voracious cougar or to be regaled with stories of the war. Lets say I am looking for a woman between 24 and 34 years of age. (0.20)( ----Twilight和Jonas Brothers XDDDDDDDDDDDDD)
fU = The fraction of age-appropriate women in London with a university education. (他希望要有大學學歷的，看到這總覺得這篇論文的目的是在幫他徵女友吧，開出條件讓大家都知道)
I am not trying to be an elitist or anything, but I would like my girlfriend to have a university education. I think we would have more in common and I would like someone I could discuss my work with sometimes. I know that there are many intelligent people who don’t go to university, so don’t get all righteously indignant. Everyone has preferences. How many women out there have dated men shorter than themselves? I rest my case. (0.26)
fB = The fraction of university educated, ageappropriate women in London who I find physically attractive.(關鍵字：Physically attractive!)
Physical attractiveness is important. It is often the first thing people notice about each other and it makes sex easier. Not that my potential girlfriend need be considered attractive by anyone else, but it is important that I ind her attractive. This is a tough parameter to estimate. Let’s be generous and say I find 1 in 20, or 5% of ageappropriate women in London with a university education physically attractive. (0.05)
L = The length of time in years that I have been alive thus making an encounter with a potential girlfriend possible.(他預估還能活著的時間)
Good lord, I am old. (31)
中間公式如何導的略過…
直接產生下面這個公式↓
G = N *⋅ fW ⋅ fL ⋅ fA ⋅ fU ⋅ fB
再將數字代入
G = 60,975,000 ⋅ 0.51⋅ 0.13⋅ 0.20 ⋅ 0.26 ⋅ 0.05
or
G=10,510
So, what this means is that there are 10,510 people in the UK that satisfy these most basic criteria for being my girlfriend.(有10510的英國女性同胞是符合他的條件) That is 0.00017% of the UK and 0.0014% of Londoners, which doesn’t seem so bad. On a given night in London,
there is greater than a 1 in 1000 chance that I will meet an attractive woman between the ages of 24 and 34 with a university degree. Of course this does not take into account the fraction of these women that will find me attractive (depressingly low), (哈哈哈他很有自知之明，要女生也要看的上他才行) the fraction of these women who will be single (falling with age) and, perhaps most importantly, the fraction of these women who I will get along with. Including such factors would greatly reduce the above figure of 10,510.(加上其他條件這個數字會更小) A rough estimate puts the number of potential girlfriends accounting for these three additional criteria (1 in 20 of the women find me attractive, half are single and I get along with 1 in 10) at 26. That’s correct. There are 26 women in London with whom I might have a wonderful relationship(26人會不會太少阿). So, on a given night out in London there is a 0.0000034% chance of meeting one of these special people, about 100 times better than finding an alien civilization we cancommunicate with. That’s a 1 in 285,000 chance. Not great.
最後這段的數字其實他也是大概估的吧~唔~數學好的人可以來教我怎麼算那個28萬分之一嗎?我還蠻想算一下在台灣能遇到理想伴侶的機率
自己大概預估數字：
假如我是個宅女只在台北縣市活動(不列入台中)，而且要找教育程度大學以上的25~29歲的男性且會吸引我的(完全依照他的條件類推，而不去考慮我的理想條件為興趣相投或是個性好…)
B(boyfriend)=N(23,082,125全台灣人口)fW(0.50男性比例)fL(0.27台北縣市男性比例)fA(0.16年紀23~29)fU(0.3隨便預估一個值，這個我不會算，台北男性教育程度大學以上的機率，台灣男性有大學以上的人數是345481，但我找不到台北市教育的男性比率)fB(0.05能吸引我的~我用他的數字)
=7479
哇哩咧怎麼比他算的還少= =，所以結論：
在台灣台北縣市能找到男朋友的機率比28萬分之一還小
(以上算式隨便玩玩，不要太認真)
最後真正的結論：
我一直覺得這篇論文根本就是他的徵友文! 相信他現在已經受到很多「覺得他有趣而不認為他是怪異geek」的女性關注了。還有他只把範圍設在London，如果他能到處去旅行或是拜訪朋友，將寫這篇論文的時間花在參加party或是其他活動上，我想他能找到女朋友的機率應該會提高，maybe他可以去上一些geek dating的網站，
應該很適合他^^
另在附上外國討論串，裡頭有很多質疑他公式數字用錯的說法~看看就好not serious!
http://www.boingboing.net/2010/01/13/drake-equation-expla.html
後序：
結果這個研究生好像跟他隔壁的鄰居交往了~哇哩咧~
親愛的朋友們，不要太在乎這個用公式算出來微小的機率，
而是應該要四處看看，搞不好身邊會是你的另一半喔XD
先大概來看一下新聞怎麼寫，等一下來研究他的論文，
別懷疑，現在論文題目百百款XD…
新聞如下：別挑了 找到理想伴侶的機率28萬分之一
http://tw.news.yahoo.com/article/url/d/a/100114/1/1yssj.html
他的論文在這→
http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/staff/phd_students/backus/why_i_dont_have_a_girlfriend.pdf
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kMKVc4-0Um8
台詞：
“ However, Howard is undaunted, reminding the group of the Drake Equation.
SHELDON: “You mean the one that estimates the probability of making contact with extraterrestrials by calculating the product of increasing restrictive series of fractional values, such those stars with planets, and those planets likely to develop life, N = R x FP x NE x FL x FI x FC x L?” (Attention, Chuck Lorre Productions: you now have the tape you should submit to get Jim Parsons nominated for an Emmy.)
HOWARD: “Yeah! That one. You can modify it to calculate the chance of us having sex by using the number of single women in Los Angeles by the number of those who might find us attractive, and what I call the Wolowitz Coefficient: neediness times dress size squared.”
Leonard and Raj are suddenly inspired. “Let’s go, bitches! Lock up your daughters! We’re going to hit it and quit it!”
看完這新聞覺得自我安慰也蠻好的，「不是他本身的問題」，哈，外在因素影響比較大!~單身的人如果相信這套說法，相信會較relief一點。我對他的論文產生了興趣，所以去讀了一下。首先他先把德瑞克方程式(Drake Equation)改編成可以找到potential girlfriends的機率，
將女朋友比擬成連科學家都認為極少出現的外星人，這個講師也太…Well, 他大概沒「愛情滋潤」很久了。
來看他用的公式：(他將參數完全改編)
G = The number of potential girlfriends.
One can easily substitute boyfriends in here but as I am mostly a heterosexual male I will focus on the search for a girlfriend.(他說可以將女朋友改成男朋友...)
R = The rate of formation of people in the UK (i.e. population growth).(英國人口成長率)
This is about 150,000 people per year over the last 60 years.
fW = The fraction of people in the UK who are women.(女性在英國佔的人口比率)
See the above clarification. (0.51)
fL=The fraction of women in the UK who live in London.(更縮小至London女性比率)
I would like my girlfriend to be nearby so that we can see each other. This makes it easier to get to know each other, avoids the difficulties of a long distance relationship and saves me the train fare. (0.13)(→哈這個很實際)
fA = The fraction of the women in London who are age-appropriate.(這個更實際了，要符合年紀喲)
I am nearly 31 years old (Thank you, I know I don’t look it). I would like my girlfriend to be near my own age. I don’t want to feel older than I am by not being able to keep up with a spritely 20 year old, or because I haven’t read Twilight and I don’t know who the Jonas Brothers are. Nor do I want to fall prey to a voracious cougar or to be regaled with stories of the war. Lets say I am looking for a woman between 24 and 34 years of age. (0.20)( ----Twilight和Jonas Brothers XDDDDDDDDDDDDD)
fU = The fraction of age-appropriate women in London with a university education. (他希望要有大學學歷的，看到這總覺得這篇論文的目的是在幫他徵女友吧，開出條件讓大家都知道)
I am not trying to be an elitist or anything, but I would like my girlfriend to have a university education. I think we would have more in common and I would like someone I could discuss my work with sometimes. I know that there are many intelligent people who don’t go to university, so don’t get all righteously indignant. Everyone has preferences. How many women out there have dated men shorter than themselves? I rest my case. (0.26)
fB = The fraction of university educated, ageappropriate women in London who I find physically attractive.(關鍵字：Physically attractive!)
Physical attractiveness is important. It is often the first thing people notice about each other and it makes sex easier. Not that my potential girlfriend need be considered attractive by anyone else, but it is important that I ind her attractive. This is a tough parameter to estimate. Let’s be generous and say I find 1 in 20, or 5% of ageappropriate women in London with a university education physically attractive. (0.05)
L = The length of time in years that I have been alive thus making an encounter with a potential girlfriend possible.(他預估還能活著的時間)
Good lord, I am old. (31)
中間公式如何導的略過…
直接產生下面這個公式↓
G = N *⋅ fW ⋅ fL ⋅ fA ⋅ fU ⋅ fB
再將數字代入
G = 60,975,000 ⋅ 0.51⋅ 0.13⋅ 0.20 ⋅ 0.26 ⋅ 0.05
or
G=10,510
So, what this means is that there are 10,510 people in the UK that satisfy these most basic criteria for being my girlfriend.(有10510的英國女性同胞是符合他的條件) That is 0.00017% of the UK and 0.0014% of Londoners, which doesn’t seem so bad. On a given night in London,
there is greater than a 1 in 1000 chance that I will meet an attractive woman between the ages of 24 and 34 with a university degree. Of course this does not take into account the fraction of these women that will find me attractive (depressingly low), (哈哈哈他很有自知之明，要女生也要看的上他才行) the fraction of these women who will be single (falling with age) and, perhaps most importantly, the fraction of these women who I will get along with. Including such factors would greatly reduce the above figure of 10,510.(加上其他條件這個數字會更小) A rough estimate puts the number of potential girlfriends accounting for these three additional criteria (1 in 20 of the women find me attractive, half are single and I get along with 1 in 10) at 26. That’s correct. There are 26 women in London with whom I might have a wonderful relationship(26人會不會太少阿). So, on a given night out in London there is a 0.0000034% chance of meeting one of these special people, about 100 times better than finding an alien civilization we cancommunicate with. That’s a 1 in 285,000 chance. Not great.
最後這段的數字其實他也是大概估的吧~唔~數學好的人可以來教我怎麼算那個28萬分之一嗎?我還蠻想算一下在台灣能遇到理想伴侶的機率
自己大概預估數字：
假如我是個宅女只在台北縣市活動(不列入台中)，而且要找教育程度大學以上的25~29歲的男性且會吸引我的(完全依照他的條件類推，而不去考慮我的理想條件為興趣相投或是個性好…)
B(boyfriend)=N(23,082,125全台灣人口)fW(0.50男性比例)fL(0.27台北縣市男性比例)fA(0.16年紀23~29)fU(0.3隨便預估一個值，這個我不會算，台北男性教育程度大學以上的機率，台灣男性有大學以上的人數是345481，但我找不到台北市教育的男性比率)fB(0.05能吸引我的~我用他的數字)
=7479
哇哩咧怎麼比他算的還少= =，所以結論：
在台灣台北縣市能找到男朋友的機率比28萬分之一還小
最後真正的結論：
我一直覺得這篇論文根本就是他的徵友文! 相信他現在已經受到很多「覺得他有趣而不認為他是怪異geek」的女性關注了。還有他只把範圍設在London，如果他能到處去旅行或是拜訪朋友，將寫這篇論文的時間花在參加party或是其他活動上，我想他能找到女朋友的機率應該會提高，maybe他可以去上一些geek dating的網站，
應該很適合他^^
另在附上外國討論串，裡頭有很多質疑他公式數字用錯的說法~看看就好not serious!
http://www.boingboing.net/2010/01/13/drake-equation-expla.html
後序：
結果這個研究生好像跟他隔壁的鄰居交往了~哇哩咧~
親愛的朋友們，不要太在乎這個用公式算出來微小的機率，
而是應該要四處看看，搞不好身邊會是你的另一半喔XD
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